NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Apr 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Apr 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9893 (N20W67)
produced an M1/1f flare at 14/0351 UTC. Sunspots in this area, along
with Region 9901 (N22W56), remain moderately large and complex.
Several other C-class subflares also occurred here, including a
C9/Sf with associated Type II radio sweep at 14/0739 UTC. Region
9906 (S15W02) is also an area of note, continuing to grow and
develop, and producing C-class subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Regions 9906 and the
9893/9901 complex. A major flare is also possible in these regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The 13
April Fredericksburg A-index reported in Part (V) is estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 210
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 210/205/205
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 015/012-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
