Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 13, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 13 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C5/Sf
at 13/0523 UTC in Region 9658 (S15E18). Other activity was
inconsequential. Region 9661 (N15E42) is the largest, most complex
active region on the disk as a moderately-large, beta-delta sunspot
group. However the group has yet to produce significant activity.
New Region 9665 (S26W57) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class flares are
possible. Region 9661 appears to have potential for an isolated
major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active over the past 24 hours,
although quiet to unsettled conditions have prevailed for most of
the UTC day of 13 October.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 180
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  018/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.