Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
November 13, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S18W34)
produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 13/0626Z and a long duration
C7/Sf flare at 13/1925Z. This region remains the largest and most
active region on the visible disk with white light area coverage
exceeding 1000 millionths. Some decay was observed over the past
24-36 hours with the delta configuration no longer obvious, but the
region still retains significant magnetic complexity and size. New
regions 9700 (S25W08) and 9701 (S33W03) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9690 will likely continue to produce C-class and
M-class flares and still has potential to produce an isolated major
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 232
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  220/220/220
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 215
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/008-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.