NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S18W34)
produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 13/0626Z and a long duration
C7/Sf flare at 13/1925Z. This region remains the largest and most
active region on the visible disk with white light area coverage
exceeding 1000 millionths. Some decay was observed over the past
24-36 hours with the delta configuration no longer obvious, but the
region still retains significant magnetic complexity and size. New
regions 9700 (S25W08) and 9701 (S33W03) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9690 will likely continue to produce C-class and
M-class flares and still has potential to produce an isolated major
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 232
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 220/220/220
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01