NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 13 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/Sf at 12/2313

UTC in new Region 9871 (S21E70). This region rotated around the

east limb as a moderately-sized D-type sunspot group. Region 9866

(S11E20) remains the largest sunspot group and has developed mixed

polarities in its trailer portion. It has produced C-class subflare

activity during the day.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate. Low-level M-flares are possible in Regions 9866 and 9871.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Mar 184

Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  190/195/200

90 Day Mean        13 Mar 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  008/010-012/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/30/30

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01