NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with two C1 X-ray flares, both
optically uncorrelated. New Region 9381 (S19E37) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    40/45/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 147
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01