Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 June 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
June 13, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity reached high levels. Newly numbered
Region 9502 (S26E58) produced an M7/1n flare and CME at 13/1142Z. An
M2/Sf flare was also observed earlier in the period from this
region. Limb proximity still inhibits a thorough analysis, but the
region appears to be a relatively small, moderately complex
beta-gamma spot group. Region 9489 (N20W55) produced a number of
C-class flares including a C3 with Type II sweep (450 km/s) at
13/0827Z, a C9/Sf with Type II (680 km/s) at 13/1628Z, and an
impulsive C7/Sf at 13/1957Z.  New Regions 9503 (N13E68), and 9504
(N06E76) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible from Regions 9502 and 9589.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Occasional active periods
were observed during local nighttime hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active period are again likely at higher latitudes during local
nighttime hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 181
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.