NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low conditions. Regions 9533
(S09W26) and 9539 (S19E11) produced sporadic minor activity during
the period. Two new regions were numbered: 9540 (N13E42) and 9541
(N16E69). Overall, the sun was mostly quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated
active conditions may be possible, starting on the third day, due to
a potentially favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 133
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  008/010-008/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01