NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Jul 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low conditions. Regions 9533
(S09W26) and 9539 (S19E11) produced sporadic minor activity during
the period. Two new regions were numbered: 9540 (N13E42) and 9541
(N16E69). Overall, the sun was mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated
active conditions may be possible, starting on the third day, due to
a potentially favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 133
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 008/010-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01