NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 13 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class events occurred during the period from Regions 9302 (N19W41) and 9306 (N13W13). The largest was a C3/Sf event produced by Region 9306 at 13/1946Z. Some minor growth was observed in Regions 9306 and 9308 (N16E07). No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with the chance of an isoloated M-class event possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft just before 13/0200Z. However, this shock only produced unsettled conditions. It is believed this activity is related to the halo CME observed on 10 January. Most of the energy associated with the CME on 10 January was directed eastward from the sun. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the period with isolated active conditions possible on the first day. III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 184 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 185/195/195 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 010/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
