Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 13, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several minor C-class events
occurred during the period from Regions 9302 (N19W41) and 9306
(N13W13).  The largest was a C3/Sf event produced by Region 9306 at
13/1946Z.  Some minor growth was observed in Regions 9306 and 9308
(N16E07).  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance of an isoloated M-class event possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A weak interplanetary
shock passed the ACE spacecraft just before 13/0200Z.  However, this
shock only produced unsettled conditions.  It is believed this
activity is related to the halo CME observed on 10 January.  Most of
the energy associated with the CME on 10 January was directed
eastward from the sun.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the period with
isolated active conditions possible on the first day.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 184
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  185/195/195
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.