NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Dec 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Dec 13 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low, with only minor C-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest flare, a C4/Sf at 13/0823Z, originated from Region 9267, a growing region (currently a 23-spot DAI Beta) that generated yesterday's M1/1F event. Three new regions were numbered today: 9268 (S17E74), 9269 (N14E63) and 9270 (S11E10). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with the continued probability for isolated M-class events, primarily from Region 9267. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a single period of unsettled conditions recorded at Boulder during the interval 13/0000-0300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous altitudes continue to fluctuate between low and moderate levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Dec 165 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 176 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
