NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Most flare activity was
optically uncorrelated, including the largest event, a C4.6 flare at
13/1405 UTC.  Region 9574 (S05W38) produced the only optically
correlated event for the period, a C1/Sf at 13/1921 UTC.  This
region has exhibited a moderate increase in magnetic complexity, and
is currently the largest active region on the disk, now in an
Eki/beta-gamma configuration with 20 spots and 370 millionths areal
coverage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9574 is a potential source of isolated
moderate-level flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels,
due to the ongoing influence of yesterday's shock passage from the
CME activity of 09 August.  Some additional influence from a weak
high speed stream appears to have also developed over the past 12
hours, with mainly unsettled conditions occurring over that period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, then
tapering off to quiet to unsettled conditions thereafter, as the
combined influence of CME passage and weak high speed stream effects
wane during the course of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 152
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  150/145/140
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01