NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Oct 12 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred from a variety of active regions. The largest was a C7/SF at 12/0327 UTC in Region 9661 (N14E55). This region remains the largest sunspot group presently on the disk with a beta-delta, E-type configuration and sunspot area of about 800 millionths. The remaining sunspot groups are relatively small and simple. New Region 9664 (N07E16) emerged on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 is the most likely candidate for an M-flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels in the wake of a passing CME. The most active periods occurred early in the UTC day of the 12th. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the three-day forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 02/02/02 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Oct 179 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 184 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 028/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 015/020-012/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/30/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01
