Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 12, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from a variety of active regions. The largest was a C7/SF at 12/0327
UTC in Region 9661 (N14E55). This region remains the largest sunspot
group presently on the disk with a beta-delta, E-type configuration
and sunspot area of about 800 millionths. The remaining sunspot
groups are relatively small and simple. New Region 9664 (N07E16)
emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 is the most likely candidate for an
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels in
the wake of a passing CME. The most active periods occurred early in
the UTC day of the 12th.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     02/02/02
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 179
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  028/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  015/020-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.