NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a single
M-class event. Region 9692 (N07W78) produced an M1/1b flare at
12/0757 UTC. Region 9690 (S18W22) remains the largest and most
complex sunspot group (1180 millionths with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification). Although this region only produced
isolated C-class events during the period, further M-class and
possibly X-class events are possible. Two new regions were numbered:
9698 (S08W67) and 9699 (S24E64).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9690 remains capable of producing a
major flare during the period. Region 9692 retains a slight chance
of producing a major flare. Region 9692 will rotate off the visible
disk in the next day. Old Region 9672 (S18, L=268) is due to return
on 13 November. This region produced several M and X-class events
during its last rotation.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    80/80/75
Class X    30/30/25
Proton     20/20/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 227
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  230/235/235
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 214
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01