NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 12 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C5/1f at 12/0837 UTC from Region 9866 (S10E35). Region 9866
is the most active region and continues its gradual growth with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the larger trailing spot.
A long duration C3.0 peaked at 12/0109 UTC with an overall duration
of 5 hours 16 minutes. A full halo CME and Type IV radio sweep were
associated with this event. The source of the CME is unclear.
Activity in Region 9866 at that time suggest a possible source as
does activity beyond the southeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 continues to grow and has the potential
for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic fields is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one and two of the forecast
period. On day three, there is a chance of active conditions due to
the CME early on 12 March.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 50/50/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 178
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 185/190/195
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
