Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 June 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
June 12, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C6/1n flare and faint CME from Region 9488 (S18W56). Small
centimetric bursts, a Type II radio sweep (687 km/s), and a small
>10 MeV proton enhancement accompanied this flare. Minor C-class
flares were also observed in Regions 9487 (N22W55), 9492 (N21W15),
and 9494 (S07W80). New Region 9502 (S25E68) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly low levels. A single period of
unsettled conditions were observed between 12/1800 - 2100Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 166
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  160/155/155
90 Day Mean        12 Jun  169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.