NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only three isolated C-class
events occurred during the period. The largest being an optically
uncorrelated C2 event at 12/1212 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with isolated M-class events possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single
mid-latitude active period occurring at 12/0300-0600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 178
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  175/180/185
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  012/012-010/012-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01