Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
February 12, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 12 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
events during the period. The largest of these was an C5/1f long
duration flare at 12/1442 UTC from Region 9825 (N13E29). This
region continues to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is
currently an Eai beta-gamma group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9825 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 208
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 215/215/215
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.