NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. A general state of decay
prevailed, as shown by the 6 sfu drop in today's 10.7 cm flux.
Isolated C-class flares occurred with an impulsive C5 at 0118 UTC
the largest of the period. EIT data suggest Region 9338 (S20W39) the
source of this flare. Late in the interval, a C4/Sf flare from
Region 9334 (N13W67) occurred at 2037 UTC. A type II sweep was
associated with this event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period. There is an
increasing chance of isolated active periods 14 February with the
anticipated passage of a CME on 11 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 145
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  145/145/150
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  005/010-010/010-010/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05