NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 12 2300 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate, by virtue of a single
M1/1f flare originating from Region 9267 (N07E26) at 12/1507Z. 
Other activity included only a few minor C-class events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, with a continued probability for isolated minor M-class
events from Region 9267.  Old active regions due to return in the
next two days could provide additional increased activity based on
their previous rotations.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a single period of
unsettled conditions recorded at Boulder during the interval
12/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 150
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  150/150/160
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01