Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 Aug 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
August 12, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Occasional C-class flares were
observed through the period.  Two new regions were numbered today as
Regions 9577 (N16W15) and 9578 (S10W11).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
An isolated M-class event is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions.  A shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at 12/1050 UTC and created a sudden
impulse of 23 nt on the Boulder magnetometer at 12/1136 UTC.  Solar
wind velocity increased from 336 km/s to 406 km/s and density jumped
from 6 p/cc to 35 p/cc.  This shock is believed related to the
partial halo coronal mass ejection observed on 09 August.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to minor storm conditions for 13 August due to
the CME mentioned in IIA.  Quiet to unsettled conditions should
prevail on 14 and 15 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 160
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  030/030-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.