NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 11 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9657 (N19E23) produced
a C4/SF flare at 11/0412 UTC.  Region 9661 (N16E69) also produced
minor C-class flares.  Limb proximity still hinders a more thorough
analysis, but this region does appear to be a moderately complex
group nearing 500 millionths of white light area.  New Region 9662
(N09E42) and Region 9663 (S13E67) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to at low
to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels.  Quiet to
unsettled conditions persisted until 11/1700 UTC when a 11 nT sudden
impulse was observed.  Active to minor storming conditions have
persisted since the shock which is believed to be associated with
the 09/1113 UTC M1/2f flare and CME.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storming levels with isolated
major storm conditions through day one.  Unsettled  to active
conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole
rotates into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 175
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  170/170/170
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  025/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/45/45
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/40
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/15