NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 11 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. A long duration
M2 flare occurred at 10/2325 UTC just beyond the east limb (S20). A
fast impressive non earth directed CME was associated with this
event. Region 9866 (S08E47) continued to grow, although now at a
gradual rate, and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Other activity consisted of two minor C-class
flares. Four new Regions were numbered today: Region 9867
(S29E16), Region 9868 (N19E32), Region 9869 (N24E42) and Region 9870
(S17E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 has the potential for M-class and major
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a slight
chance of isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 45/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 182
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 185/190/190
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 008/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
