NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest events of the
period were the successive C5 and C7 x-ray bursts at 11/0451Z and
11/0552Z respectively. These events appeared to be associated with
activity on the SE limb near new Region 9501 (S14E69), and a
filament eruption south of Region 9488 (S19W45). CME's were observed
with both events, but did not appear earthbound. Region 9494
(S08W69) was responsible for some minor C-class activity, but though
maintaining moderate complexity and size, flare output has decreased
considerably. Three new regions were numbered today - Regions 9499
(N18E17), 9500 (N10E71), and 9501, making a total of 15 spot groups
on the visible disk..
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A small chance for an M-class flare exist in several
regions, primarily in Region 9494.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons were at moderate levels for the latter half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    40/40/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 162
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  160/155/155
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01