NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Two C-class flares
occurred today: an optically uncorrelated C2 at 11/1711 UTC, and a
C1/Sf at 11/0043 UTC from Region 9531 (S06W20).  Three new regions
were numbered today:  9536 (N11E40), 9537 (S07E39), and 9538
(N17E86).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 132
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01