NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity – 11 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9767
(S18W87) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/0807 UTC.  This region has
shown signs of slight decay as it approached the west limb.  Region
9773 (N15W32) produced four minor C-class flare and remains a
magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta region.  There has been growth
in the area coverage of this region but reduced spot count.  Two new
regions were numbered today:  Region 9781 (S06E64) and Region 9782
(N08E73).  Region 9782 is believed to be the return of old Region
9742 which was quite active while on the disc.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with Regions 9773 (N14W32) and 9778 (S16E33) the most
promising flare sites.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, due to a
high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began at 10/2045 utc, reached a tentative maximum of 91 pfu at
11/0530 UTC. The flux is slowly declining.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next 48
hours. Strictly unsettled conditions should end the period. The
satellite proton event is expected to continue for at least another
24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     75/50/25
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 229
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  230/235/240
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/50
Minor storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/05