NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only three isolated C-class
events occurred during the period. The largest was a C1/SF event
from Region 9308 (N14E39) at 10/0215 UTC. Region 9306 (N12E14)
developed into a more complex Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration
during the period but showed little activity during that time. One
new region was numbered, 9309 (N09W16).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels with possible isolated M-class events possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 166
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  010/007-015/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01