NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 11 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z

to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only low level C-class events

observed during the period from Region 9821 (S13W25), 9822 (N18E26),

and 9825 (N12E43).  Two new regions were numbered today as Region’s

9827 (S25W43) and 9828 (S15E50).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 9821

and 9825.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  The greater than 2

MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate

levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are

possible for 13 February with the influence of a high speed stream.

The greater than 2 Mev electrons are expected to be enhanced to

moderate levels through 13 February.

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Feb 202

Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  205/210/215

90 Day Mean        11 Feb 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  007/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01