NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity continued low. A C6/1f flare erupted
near the location of spotless plage 9346 (N18W80), at 0123 UTC. A
type II sweep and a halo CME occurred in conjunction with the event.
Region 9338 (S20W28) was still the brightest region in h-alpha, and
produced occasional C-class events. Some minor surging is occurring
at west limb near where Region 9330 (N22W91) is transiting. At east
limb, more impressive surging was seen to accompany the arrival of
newly numbered Region 9350 (N18E69).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. However,
brief active conditions occurred from 0600-0900 UTC at Boulder from
a short-lived substorm. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began about 0600 UTC, following
the C6 event at 0123 UTC. The particle increase reached the 1 pfu
level, most recently at 1025 UTC, before the slow decay now
occurring, commenced.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A glancing blow from today's halo
CME is anticipated mid-to-late in the forecast period, but the
impact on the field should be slight.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux should return to background levels during the next 24
hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 151
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  005/005-005/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10