NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9733
(N15E32) produced an impulsive X2/Sf flare at 11/0808 UTC. The flare
was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 2600 sfu
Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that did not appear to
be Earth-directed. Region 9733 showed increased area and magnetic
complexity with at least one magnetic delta configuration within its
northern-most trailer spots. Region 9727 (S22W36) produced an
impulsive M1/2n flare at 11/1451 UTC associated with relatively
minor radio emission. This region showed minor growth in spot number
and area with two delta magnetic configurations evident within its
large trailing spot mass.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from
Regions 9727 and 9733. Either region could produce a major flare
during the period as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Regions 9727 and
9733.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 221
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  215/210/210
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  007/008-012/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01