NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Dec 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Dec 11 2210 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low, only small C class flares were observed. Two new regions were numbered, Region 9266 (N24W11) and Region 9267 (N08E40). Region 9267 is growing and was the source of at least one of the C class flares; others were not correlated to any observed flare activity. Late on 10 December, CME's, apparently from the area north of Region 9262 (N14E32) and along the filament channel near N45 E40, were observed by the SOHO instruments. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low early in the period. Activity should slowly increase as old active regions return to the East limb over the next few days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The >2MeV electrons fluxes at geosynchronous altitudes are elevated, reaching moderate (>10E3pfu) levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec Class M 20/25/25 Class X 01/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Dec 144 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 148/150/160 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 176 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
