Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 11, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 11 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low, only small C class flares were
observed.  Two new regions were numbered, Region 9266 (N24W11) and
Region 9267 (N08E40).  Region 9267 is growing and was the source of
at least one of the C class flares; others were not correlated to
any observed flare activity.  Late on 10 December, CME's, apparently
from the area north of Region 9262 (N14E32) and along the filament
channel near N45 E40, were observed by the SOHO instruments.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
early in the period.  Activity should slowly increase as old active
regions return to the East limb over the next few days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The >2MeV electrons
fluxes at geosynchronous altitudes are elevated, reaching moderate
(>10E3pfu) levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    20/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 144
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  148/150/160
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.