NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9566 (N17W72)
produced several C-class flares during the period.  This region has
continued to develop and is currently a Dao beta-gamma delta
configuration.  There was a long duration C2 event at 11/0640 UTC
with no optical reports observed.  Two new regions were numbered
today as Regions 9575 (N11E73) and 9576 (N12W53).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  One active period was
observed at high latitudes at 10/2100 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event on 10 August ended at 10/1440 UTC.  The event began at
10/1020 UTC and had a peak flux of 17 pfu at 10/1020 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storm conditions for 12 August. 
Active to minor storm conditions are possible for 13 August with
unsettled to active conditions on 14 August.  This activity is due
to a high speed coronal hole stream and the 09 August partial halo
CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    40/40/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 165
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  160/155/150
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  050/050-030/030-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/20
Minor storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    20/20/05