NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar Activity was low.  Five C-class flares occurred
during the period with the largest being a C8/1N at 10/0518 UT from
region 9608 (S27E07).  This region continues to increase in area and
magnetic complexity.  Region 9610 (S13E22) and 9611 (N10W64) have
increased in area.  Region 9601 has rotated beyond the west limb
without significant activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 9608 and nearby neighboring regions have
the potential to produce isolated major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet, with the possibility of isolated
active conditions in response to coronal hole effects on day two and
three.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 245
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  245/245/235
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  008/010-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01