NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar Activity was low.  Region 9658 (S13E54) was the
most active region producing three minor C-class flares.  Region
9653 (S21W02) and Region 9657 (N23E44) also produced minor C-class
events or sub faint flares.  New Region 9659 (N04E19), Region 9660
(N12E20), and Region 9661 (N12E76) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9653 and 9658 have the potential to produce
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.  High speed coronal hole
flow diminished throughout the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storms levels. 
The CME from 09/1113 UTC is expected to arrive late on day one or
early on day two.  A coronal hole will also rotate into geoeffective
position by day three and may keep activity enhanced.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 179
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  175/170/170
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  015/015-025/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/50/45
Minor storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           25/35/35
Major-severe storm    15/20/20