NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Region 9658 (S13E54) was the
most active region producing three minor C-class flares. Region
9653 (S21W02) and Region 9657 (N23E44) also produced minor C-class
events or sub faint flares. New Region 9659 (N04E19), Region 9660
(N12E20), and Region 9661 (N12E76) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9653 and 9658 have the potential to produce
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. High speed coronal hole
flow diminished throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storms levels.
The CME from 09/1113 UTC is expected to arrive late on day one or
early on day two. A coronal hole will also rotate into geoeffective
position by day three and may keep activity enhanced.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 179
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 175/170/170
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 015/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25/35/35
Major-severe storm 15/20/20