NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9690 (S18E04) remained the most impressive and active sunspot group
on the disk. It produced occasional flares including two low-level
M-class associated with minor radio emission. This region remained
large and magnetically complex, but showed some signs of decay in
the leader portion of the group. However, a magnetic delta
configuration persisted within its trailer spots. Region 9692
(N06W51) showed an increase in area and magnetic complexity, but
produced no flares. New Regions 9695 (N11E68) and 9696 (S05E68) were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9690 is expected to produce M-class
flares. It is also capable of producing a major flare. Region 9692
may produce an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 04/1705 UTC ended at 10/0715 UTC. The
maximum for this event was 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC, making it the
largest greater than 10 MeV proton event of the current sunspot
cycle.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 246
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  245/250/255
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 212
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01