NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Two noteworthy C-class events occurred during the day. The first was
a C5 which started at 0105 UTC, reached maximum at 0203 UTC, and
ended at 0443 UTC. There were no observations of corresponding disk
activity, but there was a CME just behind the Northwest limb of the
Sun that could be reasonably associated with the event. The other
was a C6 with start-max-end times of 1448-1519-1547 UTC: newly
assigned Region 9454 (N15E74) was seen to brighten in H-alpha during
the event, and a CME became visible on the East limb in C2
observations at 1530 UTC. A type II sweep was also associated with
this event. New Region 9454 is now the largest sunspot group on the
disk with an area of 300 millionths in an Eao-Beta configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 9454.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
initially active geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels
between 0000-0900 UTC. Conditions declined thereafter and were quiet
to unsettled during the last nine hours of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 130
Predicted   11 May-13 May  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        10 May 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  019/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  028/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/10