NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 10 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  The largest

event was an M1.3/1f at 09/2210 UTC from Region 9866 (S09E61).  A

Type IV radio sweep and CME were associated with the flare but

SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates no earth directed component.  Region

9866 has grown in spot count to 19 and area coverage to 840

millionths.  There are signs that a magnetic delta configuration

maybe developing in the larger trailing spot.  At 10/1706 UTC a

partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery.  Analysis of the

event indicates a backside origin.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region

9866.  Due to the developing size and magnetic complexity of this

region there is a slight chance of a major event or proton event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Active

conditions were observed at higher latitudes most likely due to a

prolonged period of southward Bz from 10/0900 to 10/1300 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated periods of

active conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast

period.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

Class M    45/45/45

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           10 Mar 179

Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  185/190/195

90 Day Mean        10 Mar 217

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  005/005-008/010-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/15/15

Minor storm           01/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/20

Minor storm           01/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01