NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 9531
(S06W08) produced a B4/Sf flare at 10/0710 UTC.  The only other
flare of note was an optically uncorrelated B7 at 10/1225 UTC.  Two
newly numbered regions rotated into view on the east limb today: 
9534 (N18E68) and 9535 (N11E76).  Both appear simply structured and
remained quiescent today, as did the other numbered regions on the
visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for
the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 130
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01