NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9773 (N14W17) belied its
ominous appearance in white light and h-alpha by producing just
C-class events in the past 24 hours. A C7/Sf at 1018 UTC was the
largest event, although the x-ray background from GOES was enhanced
throughout the day. The region measures more than 500 millionths in
white light, and retains a significant degree of magnetic
complexity. Elsewhere, Region 9778 (S17E45) grew in most parameters
and produced occasional subflares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9773 is capable of M class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A high
speed solar wind stream began to impact the magnetosphere early in
the period, with solar wind speeds increasing from 350 km/s to more
than 600 km/s. In addition, there have been intervals where the
interplanetary magnetic field has been near 20 nT southward, further
fueling the disturbance. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV
protons at GOES began around 0700 UTC. The flux attained event level
(10 pfu at greater than 10 MeV) at 2045 UTC. This increase may be
associated with east limb activity that occurred late on January 8.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The current
disturbance should persist for the next 24-48 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is likely to slowly decay.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     75/50/25
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 225
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  230/235/240
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  020/030-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           50/40/40
Major-severe storm    10/10/05