NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 10 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single, impulsive M3/1N event with an accompanying 210 SFU tenflare, from Region 9302 (N19E06) at 10/1016 UTC. The other major activity of note was a long duration C5/1N event at 10/0103 UTC. This event also produced a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) and a Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 1200 km/s. Only occasional C-class events occurred during the rest of the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly low levels with possible isolated M-class events possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with unsettled conditions occurring during the period of 10/1500-1800 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first day of the period and then unsettled for the remainder of the period. The predicted unsettled conditions will most likely be the result of the arrival of the CME described in section IA. III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 163 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-010/005-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
