Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 10, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single, impulsive
M3/1N event with an accompanying 210 SFU tenflare, from Region 9302
(N19E06) at 10/1016 UTC. The other major activity of note was a long
duration C5/1N event at 10/0103 UTC. This event also produced a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) and a Type II radio sweep
with an approximate speed of 1200 km/s. Only occasional C-class
events occurred during the rest of the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at mostly low levels with possible isolated M-class events possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with unsettled conditions
occurring during the period of 10/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day of the period and then
unsettled for the remainder of the period. The predicted unsettled
conditions will most likely be the result of the arrival of the CME
described in section IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 163
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  165/170/175
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-010/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.