NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Feb 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 10 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9811 (S26W20)
produced an M1/2f event at 10/1848 UTC. Region 9825 (N12E57)
produced a C5/1f long duration event at 10/1928 UTC. Region 9821
(S14W11) continues to show growth in both area and spot count and is
currently an Esi beta-gamma group with approximately 33 spots. A
new region was numbered today as Region 9826 (S23E39).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9811, 9821, and 9825 are capable of producing
an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to moderate
levels through 11 February and returning to background levels around
12 February.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 217
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 220/225/225
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
