NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9338 (S20W15) was the
prime flare site. It produced two C3/Sf flares, at 09/2150 and
09/2321 UTC. These were the largest events of the period. Two new
regions were assigned, 9348 (N10E05) and 9349 (N27E58).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 161
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05