NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9727 (S21W24) produced
today's largest event, a C8/Sf at 0938 UTC. The region produced
additional C-class subflares during the period. The group has shown
an increase in area of about 35%. The growth primarily consisted of
emerging positive polarity flux just north of the dominant negative
leader spots. The merging of these opposite polarities across an
east west inversion line has led to the formation of a strong delta
configuration in the region. Region 9733 (N14E44) is the other
region of note on the disk: the group has more clearly rotated into
view with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and produced a couple
C-class subflares during the day. A seventeen degree filament near
N39E24 disappeared sometime between 0116 UTC and 0545 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate for the next three days. There is a small chance,
however, for a major flare or a proton producing flare from Region
9727, especially if magnetic flux continues to emerge.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 219
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  215/215/210
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  010/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01