Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 10, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only minor C class flares were
observed.  All regions appear stable or declining.  Two new regions
were numbered today, Region 9264 (S23E65) and Region 9265 (N17E70). 
Both appear to contain small H type spot groups. Several CME's have
been observed over the NE limb, apparently associated with regions
on the back-side.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels until late in the period, when activity is expected to
increase due to returning active regions.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.   The field is still
under the influence of a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    15/20/25
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 147
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  145/148/150
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  007/012-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.