NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9562 (N05W82) produced
a C8/Sf event at 10/0136 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep.
A new region was numbered today as Region 9575 (S03E04).  The LASCO
images from yesterday observed a partial halo coronal mass ejection.
The possible cause was a North-South filament channel eruption
observed on EIT images at 10/0936 UTC close to central meridian.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated M-class events are possible from several
regions on the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 10/1020 UTC with a peak flux observed at
10/1635 UTC of 17 pfu.  Protons remain enhanced at this time.  The
actual source of the event is not currently known as several
possibilities exists.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 August.  Disturbed
conditions are expected on 12th and 13th of August due to a high
speed coronal hole flow with minor to major storm conditions
possible as a result of the CME on 09 August.  The greater than 10
MeV  protons should remain enhanced through the period with a chance
of exceeding threshold on 12 August due to the CME passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    50/40/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 160
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 150
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/010-040/040-030/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/20
Minor storm           05/30/15
Major-severe storm    01/20/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/45/30
Minor storm           05/35/20
Major-severe storm    01/20/15