NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event. At 31/2243 UTC, Region 9601 (N14E18) produced an M2.9/2n
flare with an accompanying 540 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio
sweep (velocity est. 700 km/s). LASCO imagery shows that what
appears to be a non earth-directed CME was also produced by this
flare. Since that event, only sporadic, minor C-class flares were
reported during the period. Region 9601 increased in sunspot count
and developed a delta magnetic configuration late in the period.
Region 9591 (S20W46) continued to show signs of decay, but still
retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. One new
region was numbered today: 9602 at (S08E30).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of
producing M-class events and possibly major flares during the
forecast period. Region 9591 should remain on the visible disk until
04-05 September.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active due to recurrent coronal hole effects
as well as possible transient shocks in the solar wind. Isolated
minor storming conditions are possible at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 184
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  185/180/175
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 157
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  015/025-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01