NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 October 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 01 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was high today.  A long-duration M9
flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628
(S22W91).  This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as
well as a proton injection.  Multiple discrete frequency radio
emissions were associated with the event.  EIT imagery depicted an
excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the
X-ray enhancement.  Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible
disk.  Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643
(S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42).  All were
at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels.  Isolated M-class flares are probable. 
The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as
it begins to exit the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage.  A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue.  At the close
of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and
increasing.  This proton event was in response to the M9 flare
mentioned above.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next
two days due to CME effects.  Mostly unsettled conditions are
expected on the final day of forecast.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    20/20/10
Proton     15/15/05
PCAF       In Progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 217
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  210/205/205
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  035/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  020/020-030/030-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/35/40
Minor storm           25/40/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10