Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Nov 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
November 1, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events
observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf
at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687
produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent
brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf)
came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22)
continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and
magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity
during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as
flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated,
however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the
X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687
and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to
be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing
event during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's
shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned
southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to
-12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to
mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC.
At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was
weakly northwards.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 236
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  225/225/230
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 204
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.