NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9364 (S10W30)
produced a C1/sf at 01/1822 UTC.   A 9 degree filament (S30E40)
disappeared between 28/1734 UTC and 01/1113 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on the second and third day of the
forecast as a result of the CME observed on 28 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 131
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  008/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  005/005-015/012-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/25
Minor storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01