NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Most significant
activity during the period was an optically uncorrelated C4 x-ray
flare which occurred at 01/0910 UTC.  Region 9767 (S23E49) remains
the most ominous and magnetically complex region on disk.  Even so,
it has been relatively quiescent throughout the period with no
appreciable change to umbral structure.  Region 9764 (N14W37) has
shown a dramatic increase in spot coverage during the period
although it also has been restrained.  New Region 9768 (S06W15) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC remains in
progress.  Event maximum was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater than
10 MeV proton particle flux event is expected to end late on day one
of the forecast.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/50/10
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 232
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  230/230/230
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  008/010-008/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01