NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few small C-class subflares
occurred in Regions 9283 (S10W57) and 9289 (S06E03). Region 9283 is
a small decaying D-type sunspot group. Region 9289 remains a large
E-type sunspot group with some magnetic complexity. New Regions 9293
(N13E41) and 9294 (N22E69) were numbered. Neither sunspot group
appears particularly significant.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9289 is the most likely source of flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the first day of the forecast period.
Activity may increase to unsettled to active levels by the end of
the forecast period due to a well-positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 171
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  005/010-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01