NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9330 (N25E44)
produced a C7/Sf flare at 01/0712 UTC and two lesser C-class events
during the period.  This region remains the largest and most active
on the visible disk.  Two new regions were numbered today:  9333
(N24W10) and 9334 (N12E78).  Region 9333 developed with rapid growth
but produced no significant activity.  Region 9334 rotated onto the
visible disk today and produced some subfaint optical flares, but
without any notable x-ray enhancements.  Other active regions on the
visible disk were mostly stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days.  Region 9330 is a
potential source for isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled throughout the day,
in the wake of the geomagnetic storm activity of January 31.  A
trend toward mostly quiet conditions has been evident for the latter
half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods for the
next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 161
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  165/165/170
90 Day Mean        01 Feb  172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01